This will force us to reorganize societies and world population.
Globally, in world population recent researches the birth rate has begun to decline in remarkable proportions, which will enter humanity in a critical era by the year 2100. Some countries will witness a significant decrease in their world population during the current century, and according to a study recently published in The Lancet journal, 23 countries are expected to find themselves in a dilemma of the declining population to Half by the year 2100. After the world population peaks in 2064 with about 9.7 billion people, it will return to drop to about 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
A decrease in the world population
“This is a great thing, as most of the us will see a natural decrease in the world population,” Christopher Murray, an assistant writer and researcher from Washington University, Seattle, told BBC radio. “A study of this situation is necessary to know the magnitude of the problem, it is extraordinary and requires us to reorganize societies.”. »
What is the cause of the problem? The study indicates that it is due to the entry of women into the labor market in an atmosphere of competition, in addition to the widespread use of contraceptives. This was reflected in pregnancy rates and decreased in various parts of the world, after witnessing a strong reversal in the fertility boom after the Second World War.
World population by the end of the century
“Some countries, such as Spain, Portugal, and Thailand, will see their population halve sharply by the end of this century,” Murray said. But does the low census not have a positive effect that reduces resource depletion? Researchers believe that a low number of births may reduce pressure on resources, but the positive effects will collide with the challenges created by advanced age groups.
“Older societies will create an enormous social challenge,” said Murray. “Who will pay taxes in a world crowded with the elderly?” Who will take care of their health care? Will the retirement option be available? We need a solution that satisfies everyone.” This decline will force the countries of the world to join hands to find a solution to the dilemma. The success of the country’s economy will be linked to migrants and open borders.
Population in Africa
The impact of the problem of decline in Africa will appear late, as it will witness an increase in its population instead of a decrease by 2100. Nigeria is expected to become the second-largest country in the population with about 791 million people when it entered the year 2100. Murray told the BBC: “The world will witness an increase in The proportion of the population of African descent. »
The mechanism that the world needs to adapt to this problem remains unclear. Especially after the partial success of initiatives to encourage childbearing by using legal tools such as maternity leave, longer paternity, childcare centers, and financial incentives. “If we don’t reach a solution, human life will be extinct after several centuries,” said Murray.
World population between the past and future
It is highly unlikely that half of the world’s population would be lost all at once. However, in the past, there have been significant events that have led to a substantial loss of human life, such as wars, pandemics, natural disasters, and famines.
For example, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1919 infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide and caused the death of between 50 million to 100 million individuals, which represents approximately 3-5% of the world’s population at the time.
However, it’s important to note that such events are not the norm and typically occur over an extended period, allowing for response and adaptation. The world has made significant progress in terms of medicine, public health, disaster preparedness, and emergency response, which should mitigate the impact of such events in the future.
It is difficult to accurately predict the world’s population in 2100 as it will depend on various factors such as birth rates, death rates, migration, and advancements in medicine, technology, and social and economic policies.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs has projected several scenarios for the world’s population in 2100. According to their estimates, the global population could range from 8.1 billion to 16.6 billion by the end of the century.
The most likely scenario projects a peak world population of around 11 billion in 2100 before gradually declining due to falling fertility rates. However, these projections are subject to change based on various factors such as changes in fertility rates, life expectancy, and migration patterns, as well as unforeseen events such as pandemics or wars.
Optimistic views about the world population
There are several optimistic views about the world population, including:
Decreasing Fertility Rates: Fertility rates have been declining globally over the past few decades, which has led to a slower rate of population growth. Many countries have fertility rates that are below the replacement level, which means that their populations will eventually stabilize or even decline.
Advances in Medicine and Technology: Advances in medicine and technology have improved the quality of life and increased life expectancy. This has resulted in a lower mortality rate and a growing elderly population. Furthermore, medical advances such as vaccines have led to the eradication of diseases such as smallpox and the near-elimination of polio.
Education and Economic Development: Education and economic development are closely linked to lower fertility rates. As more people gain access to education and economic opportunities, they tend to have fewer children. This has been seen in many developing countries that have made significant strides in reducing poverty and improving education.
Sustainable Development Goals: The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals aim to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all. These goals have the potential to create a better world for everyone, including reducing poverty, hunger, and disease and increasing access to education and economic opportunities.
Overall, while there are still challenges facing the world population, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the future. By working together to address these challenges, we can create a better world for future generations.