This will force us to reorganize societies and population.
Globally, in population recent researches the birth rate has begun to decline in remarkable proportions, which will enter humanity in a critical era by the year 2100. Some countries will witness a significant decrease in their population during the current century, and according to a study recently published in The Lancet journal, 23 countries are expected to find themselves in a dilemma of the declining population to Half by the year 2100. After the world population peaks in 2064 with about 9.7 billion people, it will return to drop to about 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
A decrease in the population
“This is a great thing, as most of the world will see a natural decrease in the population,” Christopher Murray, an assistant writer and researcher from Washington University, Seattle, told BBC radio. “A study of this situation is necessary to know the magnitude of the problem, it is extraordinary and requires us to reorganize societies.”. »
What is the cause of the problem? The study indicates that it is due to the entry of women into the labor market in an atmosphere of competition, in addition to the widespread use of contraceptives. This was reflected in pregnancy rates and decreased in various parts of the world, after witnessing a strong reversal in the fertility boom after the Second World War.
Population by the end of the century
“Some countries, such as Spain, Portugal, and Thailand, will see their population halve sharply by the end of this century,” Murray said. But does the low census not have a positive effect that reduces resource depletion? Researchers believe that a low number of births may reduce pressure on resources, but the positive effects will collide with the challenges created by advanced age groups.
“Older societies will create an enormous social challenge,” said Murray. “Who will pay taxes in a world crowded with the elderly?” Who will take care of their health care? Will the retirement option be available? We need a solution that satisfies everyone.” This decline will force the countries of the world to join hands to find a solution to the dilemma. The success of the country’s economy will be linked to migrants and open borders.
Population in Africa
The impact of the problem of decline in Africa will appear late, as it will witness an increase in its population instead of a decrease by 2100. Nigeria is expected to become the second-largest country in the population with about 791 million people when it entered the year 2100. Murray told the BBC: “The world will witness an increase in The proportion of the population of African descent. »
The mechanism that the world needs to adapt to this problem remains unclear. Especially after the partial success of initiatives to encourage childbearing by using legal tools such as maternity leave, longer paternity, childcare centers, and financial incentives. “If we don’t reach a solution, human life will be extinct after several centuries,” said Murray.